Forecasting Urban Expansion in the Seven Lakes Area in San Pablo City, Laguna, the Philippines Using the Land Transformation Model

Managing urban growth is essential to the conservation of the Seven Lakes ecosystem in San Pablo City, Laguna province in the Philippines. This study simulates potential conversion of agricultural lands to built-up areas using the land transformation model (LTM), which integrates geographical information systems (GIS) and an artificial neural network (ANN). Historical drivers of the expansion of built-up areas are identified and validated through the application of LTM to land cover maps from 1988 to 2015. Identified drivers include distance to roads, distance to trails, distance to the Seven Lakes, distance to existing built-up areas, slopes and population density per barangay. Results from the percent correct matrix (PCM) were 79.88 per cent for the 1988–2003 runs and 66.42 per cent for the 2003–2015 runs, while the Kappa statistic for both time periods was higher than 0.60, which indicates high levels of agreement. Forecasted scenarios were business-as-usual (BAU) growth, doubled growth and strict law implementation protecting the vicinity around the Seven Lakes and other natural areas. In the BAU scenario, urban expansion spread out along the road networks. The doubled growth scenario showed that further expansion will likely extend around the proximity of the lakes, which may adversely affect the livelihoods of the local fishing communities. As such, it was recommended that preventive measures, such as strict implementation of buffer zones coupled with regular monitoring, be taken to manage land use in the surrounding lake areas

Addressing Rice Waste in University Cafeterias Using Material Flow Analysis and System Dynamics Modeling

Food waste has emerged as one of the focus areas in sustainability research. At the Ateneo de Manila University, previous studies have found that food waste is composed mainly of rice. This study, therefore, analyzed cafeteria rice systems in the university through a material flow analysis (MFA) to identify key factors for formulating effective rice waste reduction techniques and then applied the results toward developing system dynamics (SD) models as tools for decision-making. The MFA found that the total mass of produced known rice waste was 49.48 kg/d. The largest sources of rice wastes were the upstream processes of the cafeteria rice system involving the cooking and serving of rice. The SD model developed for one cafeteria found that the service stage was the largest source of rice waste. The main factor influencing service waste generation was the surplus of cooked rice. A scenario was simulated in which the amount of rice used in additional batches cooked was minimized, yielding a substantial decrease in the mass of service waste and lost revenue. Not only does this research provide baseline information that enables the university to enhance sustainable consumption and food waste minimization efforts, but it also contributes to the data pool for rice wastage in the Philippine and Southeast Asian contexts. Furthermore, results indicate a need to re-strategize rice waste campaigns that focus on consumption when much can be done in the preparation and service stages. Collaborating with cafeteria management to improve efficiency in the kitchen is key in addressing the overall rice waste problem. Downstream, consumer-focused interventions targeting changes in attitudes and behaviors must be complemented by upstream changes in operations and management approaches to support both a structural and cultural transformation for sustainability

Lessons Learned in Pursuit of Lifelong Learning in Science, Technology, and Society

This case study aims to assess whether the course, Science, Technology, and Society, as part of the recent science education reforms in Philippine higher education, can foster science literacy and bring about lifelong learning in science, technology, and society. Five students, who were enrolled in Science, Technology, and Society during the first semester of the academic year 2018 to 2019 in an institution of Jesuit higher education in the Philippines, participated in a focus group discussion about their class experiences. Thematic analysis of verbatim transcript revealed that students were not confident in considering themselves literate about science after a semester of classes because of several concerns in the content and delivery of the course. Specifically, topics covered were not interdisciplinary as they should be, lacked depth, and were not relatable to students. Some teachers were inclined towards knowledge transmission and required more support for teaching that espouses student-centered learning. Teachers’ lack of motivation to teach the course was also noticeable among students and might have left a negative impression about the course. These findings can provide valuable insights into how efforts in reforming science education towards lifelong learning in science, technology, and society can be made better and effective using a constructive alignment of intended learning outcomes, teaching-learning activities, and assessment tasks

A supply chain framework for characterizing indirect vulnerability

Purpose Climate vulnerability assessments are often operationalized by the analysis of indicators defined by the spatial boundaries of the community under study. These, however, sometimes fail to capture interdependency among communities for basic resources. This paper aims to propose a framework for characterizing vulnerability caused by interdependency by adapting a supply chain lens. Design/methodology/approach The paper proposes a definition for “indirect vulnerability” that recognizes the transboundary and teleconnected nature of vulnerability arising from resource networks among cities and communities. A conceptual framework using a supply chain approach is presented for climate hazards in particular. This approach is then demonstrated through a rapid appraisal of the rice, energy and water supply chains and the waste management chains of Metro Manila. Findings The application of the supply chain lens to assessing the indirect vulnerability of Metro Manila brings to fore issues extending beyond the decision-making boundaries of local government units. Addressing these will require vertical government coordination and horizontal inter-sectoral collaboration. Thus, this supply chain-based indirect vulnerability assessment can be complementary to traditional vulnerability assessments in providing a larger systems perspective. Originality/value Innovative tools are needed to make community vulnerability assessments both holistic and tractable. Existing methods in the private sector can be adapted rather than reinventing the wheel. This supply chain framework can be a useful decision support and planning tool across governance levels to comprehensively address vulnerability

Assessing resilience against floods with a system dynamics approach: a comparative study of two models

Purpose This paper aims to present the concepts of two different ways of generating a dynamic structure of the urban system to further allow in understanding specific urban behavior facing against flood and further evaluate the potential effect of specific resilience strategies aiming to decrease the exposure and vulnerability of the system. Design/methodology/approach Two system dynamics model structures are presented in form of Casual Loop Diagrams. Findings The main differences among the tow approaches are the time horizon and the approach that regulates the assessment of the resilience through a dynamic composite indicator: the first model refers to baseline at initial simulation time; the second model is focused on the ratio service supply to demand. Research limitations/implications Within the approach, the purpose is to properly and efficiently evaluate the effect of different Flood Risk Management strategies, i.e. prevention, defence, mitigation, preparation and recovery for consistent and resilient flood governance plans with different type of resilience scenarios. Originality/value The need for such tool is underlined by a lack on the assessment of urban resilience to flood as whole, considering the physical and social dimensions and the complex interaction among their main components. There are several assessment tools based on an indicator approach that have been proposed to meet this need. Nevertheless, indicator-based approach has the limitation to exclude the complexity of the system and its systemic interaction in terms of feedbacks’ effects among the identified components or variables selected for the system description. This peculiarity can be provided by System Dynamics modeling

Understanding Communication Needs: A Marikina Barangay Experience Linking Flooding to Climate Change Communication

Potential impacts on extreme weather events have been used to underscore the relevance and urgency of climate change. Our research on a local Marikina community’s understanding of extreme flooding events shows that such events are salient to the local community, and can therefore be used as a means to make climate change more relatable. Thus, insights from science communication related to flooding events can be useful in informing climate change communication efforts. This research on a Marikina community’s understanding of extreme flooding demonstrates how messages rooted in empirical research and using “simple language” are not enough. People want to receive practical rather than conceptual, knowledge-based messages in order to take action. This study therefore recommends that researchers should investigate different stakeholders’ understandings of what constitutes good climate change communication and determine the needs of different audiences and their unique cultural standpoints before crafting knowledge-based materials. This research also hopes to encourage further scholarly discussions on striking the balance between giving people what they want to know vs. giving people what science thinks they need to know

Balancing Paradigms in Climate Change Communication Research to Support Climate Services

Initiatives such as the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) and Future Earth aim for co-design and co-production to create specific climate services, which in turn, require dialogue with stakeholders. Climate change communication research can help enable this dialogue. This paper proposes a more explicit articulation of the paradigms grounding climate change communication research to provide more balanced research for climate services. Paradigms or worldviews contain assumptions about the nature of reality and knowledge, and therefore drive the construction of research questions and methodologies. An assessment of peer-reviewed articles between January 2010 and August 2014 using the key phrase “climate change communication” reflects research paradigms that are dominantly post-positivist, seeking large-scale patterns to make generalizations. While these are useful, climate change communication research must also consider what approaches would value and use stakeholders’ differing perspectives towards encouraging dialogue and implementing long-term solutions with purveyors of climate services. Future research should balance the approach by exploring the use of constructivist or critical paradigms to support dialogue-based climate services. Such research is valuable in addressing the need for climate change communication professionals and scholars to (1) localize messages and (2) frame them in terms of values and issues pertinent to specific populations and groups

Physical Services Index for Flooding Hazards

Most hazard assessments focus on the magnitude and probability of occurrence of the trigger events. Although useful, they overlook the influence of the natural and built environments in either modifying the magnitude of the trigger event or setting off a cascade of ancillary hazards. This chapter presents a Physical Services Index (PSI) to account for the twofold role of physical urban services in compounding flooding hazards and as an indicator of preexisting development gaps, which can constitute hazards themselves. Using Metro Manila, the Philippines, as a pilot case, a system-dynamics platform simulates trends in the PSI. The results show that, for Metro Manila, the effects of population growth on the PSI can be mitigated by reducing land conversion into built-up areas. They likewise reveal that limiting flood volume as a flood-management measure no longer suffices. Governance institutions will need to address large deficits in urban services to prevent the cascading of flooding hazards and to improve health outcomes and wellbeing. More broadly, these results demonstrate that development-oriented investments, such as improving urban services, are potentially more effective at enhancing resilience to flooding, even though they are not explicitly hazard related. Highlights Cascading hazards are a prevalent but understudied class of multihazards. A Physical Services Index (PSI) tracks urban services and their impacts on flood hazards. For Metro Manila, less urbanization can offset PSI impacts of population growth. Addressing flood hazards requires investments beyond flood-control infrastructures. Resilience investments can be more cost-effective with development co-benefits

Reconciling Post-Positivist and Post-Modern Worldviews in Climate Research and Services

Climate change has evolved into an almost all-encompassing issue of this generation. What had begun in the realm of the physical sciences has now proved more complex than initially anticipated, and to be inherently tied to human lifestyles and decision-making. Thus, a holistic approach to climate science requires rigorous interdisciplinary and trans-disciplinary research and practice toward implementing responsive actions on the ground. Post-modernism has emerged in the last few years as a potential interdisciplinary research paradigm for issues such as climate change because of its inclusiveness. However, it has been criticized by researchers in general because of its apparent relativism, as well as its lack of concrete metrics for evaluating the validity of findings. Scientists still mainly appeal to the traditional post-positivist approach in which there is one “truth” that is objective and can be known through careful experimentation. Post-positivism holds scientific knowledge and reputation in high regard, while often dismissing the views of non-scientists as being uninformed or lacking in depth of technical understanding.However, the complexity of the climate change issue cannot be contested; and the diversity of stakeholder voices make an already complex issue more challenging to comprehend, much less address. A variety of terms such as “resilience,” “risk,” “safety,” and “vulnerability” are used with no clear consensus about what these terms mean. Because these terms are tied to societal values, different contexts result in different meanings and, hence, implications for adaptation goals.These issues become all the more crucial given the current initiatives toward conceptualizing, developing, and implementing frameworks and infrastructures for the delivery of climate services, that is climate information tailored for the use of stakeholders in vulnerability, impact and adaptation assessments, and subsequent decision-making on policies and interventions. Our understanding of the climate problem drives our definition of goals, our formulation and implementation of sound policies, and our articulation and measurement of progress indicators. The diversity of stakeholders means a potential diversity in the understanding of what needs to be done in face of climate change and in de ning the indicators to monitor the actual progress and success of implementation. How then, do we move forward given the limitations in both current post-positivistic and post-modern approaches, and the dif culty in reconciling the two? Can we integrate the strengths of these worldviews in order to conduct rigorous research toward delivering relevant and effective services? Can the discourse be broadened to introduce both philosophical and sociological perspectives in order to navigating the nexus between science and society? We argue herein for a reconciliation, which we hope will contribute to building the foundations of interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary methodologies in climate change research and response

Forecast of Potential Areas of Urban Expansion in the Laguna de Bay Basin and Its Implications to Water Supply Security

The Laguna de Bay Basin is a highly important economic and environmental resource with a variety of land and water uses. This study investigates the status and trends of the land cover change of the Laguna de Bay Basin, focusing on urban expansion. Using the Land Transformation Model (LTM), drivers of conversion of agricultural and natural land cover to built-up land were determined based on the land cover change between 2003 and 2015. Drivers identified include distance to rivers, distance to roads, distance to Laguna Lake, distance to existing built-up, slope, population density, soil type, temperature, and rainfall. A forecast of urban expansion assuming “business-as-usual” conditions to year 2050 shows the expansion of built-up areas southward of the National Capital Region towards the areas of Cavite, Batangas, and Laguna, and eastward to Rizal. This poses a risk to the water bodies near these areas. Potential implications on water quality and quantity, as components of overall water supply security, are discussed. A framework for future research integrating land use and land cover change (LULCC) and water supply security is proposed. The study recommends the continued implementation of integrated watershed management and the development of more transboundary management policies